Pentagon: Forecast of Troop Withdrawals Based on Spectacularly Bad Assumption

Gen. George Casey, speaking at a Pentagon news conference with Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, said his prediction in July that "fairly substantial" troop withdrawals could begin next spring was based on the assumption that satisfactory progress on the political and security fronts would continue.

"Our forecast was based on extensive analysis," remarked General Casey. "That analysis was based on the assumption that things would go, you know, pretty well. That seems reasonable, doesn't it?" Casey added.

"We thought that after Labor Day, once the kids went back to school and the new TV season started up, things would quiet down. In hindsight, not a good assumption on our part."

"Keep in mind," Casey continued, "we were right about being greeted as liberators. We just didn't know the Iraqi people would be so pissed about being liberated."

After Casey spoke, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld answered his own rhetorical questions. Would he do it again? Hard to say. Were his answers freewheeling and candid? Absolutely. Did the reporters regurgitate his points without a hint of irony or incredulity? You bet they did.